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Prediction of mortality from mesothelioma

Two series of results, which are less discussed in public, are certainly more important.

The first concerns the estimated lifetime probabilities of dying from mesothelioma in recent generations, compared with the older ones. For instance, we found that, in France, these lifetime probabilities were increasing in the new generations (we estimated a lifetime risk of 0.8% for men born in 1965–68), while these lifetime probabilities were found to be decreasing in UK and US studies. This might be explained by the different patterns of asbestos consumption in these three countries.

The second concerns the analysis of mortality in women. We did not find any trend in the mortality in females, which is in line with the results of Price in USA (Peto did not study women’s mortality). This is certainly reassuring, as the opposite would be expected if environmental exposures to asbestos played a significant part in the mortality from mesothelioma.

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